Studies show that weather plays a role in voter turnout

Doug King, a freshmen biology/premed major, said he thinks the weather will have little or no influence on the turnout this election. “This year, no weather condition will influence people; they will go out and vote,” he said. Kevin Stone | Daily Kent Sta

Credit: DKS Editors

Weather’s ability to change the outcome of an election has been speculated.

As of last night, weather.com predicted today’s temperature in Kent will be a high of 69 degrees and sunny. Kent’s forecasted weather mirrors predictions for most of the country.

Geography professor Tom Schmidlin said apart from rain in the Carolinas and possible snow in the mountainous regions of the Northwest, the national weather for today looks mild and bright.

Despite the pleasant weather forecast for this Election Day, previous elections with poor weather raised questions about a possible link between weather and voter turnout.

In a study published in 2007 by The Journal of Politics, three political science professors collaborated to produce “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections.” They found that rain reduces voter turnout by a little less than 1 percent per inch and .5 percent for snow.

The title of their research comes from the authors’ findings that the Democratic Party was hit the hardest when weather was poor, possibly because of voters from lower income areas that rely on walking or public transportation to get to the polling places.

Specifically, the study reported “for every one-inch increase in rain above its Election Day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5 percent of the vote,” and .6 percent for snow.

Friday, Sandy Halem, 2nd vice chair for the Portage County Democrats loaded seven minivans full of voters from the Kent State Student Center to transport them to vote early. The sun was shining that day, and she said she thinks the good weather had much to do with the number of people who showed up, as well as their willingness to wait.

“You cannot discount the fact that you feel better when the sun in shining and more powerful,” she said. “If the difficulty in this case is getting to the polling place, staying in line and getting home late, all of those negatives seem easier to overcome when the weather is on our side. I couldn’t be happier looking at the forecast.”

Halem also said the Portage County Democrats put eight stationed election areas throughout the county so if anyone calls needing a ride, transportation is available by calling 330-298-3367.

“We are within 10 minutes from anybody,” she said.

Norm Sandvoss, Portage County Republican chairman, said he doesn’t anticipate a lack of participation from voters during this election, regardless of weather.

In response to the study concerning weather’s link to voter turnout, he said he believes the findings could hold true only for a regular local election.

“During a presidential year, you can throw out that kind of research,” he said. “These voters are anxious to vote. They want to vote and weather isn’t going to stop them.”

Schmidlin said last year on Nov. 4, the temperature in Kent was a high of 49 degrees and a low of 31, which was a little cooler than usual. Today’s predicted high temperature is 15 degrees warmer than average.

Contact public affairs reporter Alyssa Sparacino at [email protected].