On March 19, Ohio voters will determine which Republican candidate will face Sherrod Brown, the incumbent Democrat, in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.

This is an important election, as Democrats currently hold the majority in the Senate at a narrow 51-49 margin. Ohio is one of several key states that have the potential to flip the chamber, as Brown holds one of three Democratic Senate seats up for election this year in states that Trump won in 2020.  

The importance of this March race can’t be understated. Out of the three Republican candidates ready to face up against Brown, the one who wins the nomination will determine the future of the GOP for the next few years.

Sherrod Brown has raised nearly $30 million for this election, far more than his opponents, but his lead in the polls continues to slip. According to a January poll by Emerson College, Brown was narrowly defeating all three of the other candidates, but only by less than the poll’s margin of error. Compared to a similar poll Emerson had put on a few months prior in November 2023, Brown has only fallen in popularity.

His three Republican contenders, Matt Dolan, Bernie Moreno and Frank LaRose have been slowly climbing up in the polls.

Matt Dolan has been a state senator for over six years, representing the southern and western suburbs of Cleveland. Notably, he is also the son of Larry Dolan, the owner of the Cleveland Guardians. He is likely the most moderate of the three candidates, and he is a big proponent of decreased taxes for businesses and top earners in Ohio.

Bernie Moreno has very little political experience as a luxury car dealer and entrepreneur.

However, as seen in many different Republican elections and most notably in Trump’s success, a mindset geared towards business tends to be seen favorably by conservatives.

That business-savvy approach can already be seen in the amounts of funds he has raised — in the last reporting period alone, he raised $6.6 million, more than triple what Dolan and LaRose combined have managed. Moreno is an immigrant from Colombia and uses his personal experience as a contrast against illegal immigration. The southern border issue is central to his campaign.

Frank LaRose has been the Secretary of State of Ohio since 2019, and he is the most well-established Republican candidate.

He led the charge on the failed Issue 1 in August last year, attempting to raise the threshold for constitutional amendment passage to 60%, which was, of course, a proxy for November’s abortion rights amendment. This drastic move was likely driven by his desire to boost his Senate campaign, but its extreme failure has only hurt his chances.

Despite not being backed by Trump in this election, although he has previously been favored by him, he promises to stand with the former president’s policies.

Moreno is the favorite leading up to the March 19 primary, though he still hasn’t won the majority over Brown in early polls. In Trump’s endorsement on his social media service Truth Social, he said Moreno would “always stand up to the fascist ‘nut jobs’ and the spineless RINOs” as a “successful political outsider.”

Moreno was a long-term critic of Trump, labeling him a “lunatic” and a “maniac.” LaRose, on the other hand, endorsed Trump for president as soon as he joined the Senate race, fired an aide when his past criticisms of Trump resurfaced and has done as much as he possibly can to align himself with the former president.

Moreno formerly ran for Senate in 2022, but at Trump’s behest, he dropped out of the race. Despite this, many groups have been calling for Dolan and LaRose to step aside, claiming Moreno is the one “pro-Trump, America First candidate in this race” in the words of Moreno himself.

As it is, he has positioned himself as one of the most dangerous candidates in similar elections nationwide with the greatest threat to our democracy.

With his minimal political experience, his indefinite political convictions and his disconnect from the average Ohioan, Moreno has made it clear that if he is to win the Senate seat, he will not be representing Ohio’s interests.

Virginia Doherty is an opinion writer. Contact her at [email protected].